“Tehran scenario” in Central Asian cities
Date
At the end of 2025, the futurology institute Nightingale Intelligence published a study warning of a massive deterioration in the water supply in Central Asian cities if reforms are not implemented quickly.
The region is heavily dependent on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, whose tributaries originate from dwindling glaciers in the Pamir and Tian Shan mountains. Climate change and inefficient water consumption in agriculture and cities are exacerbating the situation.
The so-called “Tehran scenario” describes a drastic decline in fresh water supplies in cities such as Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe. It is caused by depleted sources, dilapidated infrastructure, and rapid urbanization without sufficient investment.
In Dushanbe, falling water pressure, frequent disruptions, and high water losses are already evident. Per capita consumption in Tashkent is significantly higher than in Europe, at up to 400 liters.
The main problems
The study identifies inefficient water management as the main problem: outdated systems, underfunding, lack of investment, and lack of control lead to high losses and a lack of incentives to save.
Agriculture consumes 80 to 90 percent of water, with outdated irrigation systems causing up to 40 percent losses. This leads to falling groundwater levels and damaged ecosystems.
Social consequences include migration from rural areas and growing pressure on cities. In addition, falling water levels threaten hydropower and thus the energy supply.
Political tensions are exacerbated by planned water diversions, such as the Kosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan.
The study emphasizes that the “Tehran scenario” is avoidable. What is needed are investments in infrastructure, reforms in agriculture, and a fair water economy with clear tariffs and responsibilities. Time to act is running out.
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